Prediction: San Diego State will beat Tennessee

OK, let’s get this out of the way first:

Yes, I’m aware that Tennessee plays in a tougher basketball conference. I also know the Volunteers are much more battle-tested when it comes to the NCAA tournament stage. And, of course, I’m very much aware that San Diego State hasn’t won a single NCAA tournament game in its mostly woeful basketball history.

Furthermore, I haven’t forgotten how the Aztecs pulled a monumental choke job four years ago when they were last in the NCAA tournament.

But I have a feeling the zero in the NCAA win column is about to disappear. Yes, seriously. I think San Diego State is going to beat Tennessee in Thursday’s opening round of the NCAA tournament in Providence, R.I.

No, I haven’t lost my mind – or the ability to break down matchups and make intelligent predictions.

I see a much different San Diego State team than I’ve previously seen in Steve Fisher’s 11 seasons as coach. The Aztecs are short on depth and struggle to make free throws – the latter thing is definitely a concern during a close NCAA tournament game – but I see a mightier will to win that hasn’t always been part of the San Diego State basketball persona.

The Aztecs should’ve been upset by Colorado State in the opening round of the Mountain West Conference postseason tournament but weren’t. Most of the past San Diego State squads would have let the semifinal game against a powerful New Mexico squad get away – this one persevered in the final minutes of an outstanding basketball game and notched the impressive victory. Then when San Diego State could have been out of gas while playing UNLV on the Rebels’ home court, this one allowed just 45 points to a deep talented squad.

Oh yeah, remember how the Aztecs can’t make free throws? Freshman Kawhi Leonard knocked down eight straight free throws in the final two minutes to thwart UNLV’s comeback hopes.

When I look at Tennessee, I see a beatable team. The Volunteers don’t resemble the 2002 Illinois squad that steamrolled a San Diego State squad pinching itself to see if it really was in an NCAA tournament game. The Volunteers are more like the 2006 Indiana squad that the Aztecs played – highly beatable and I would have felt that way even if Tennessee didn’t get routed by 29 points by Kentucky in its most recent game.

Tennessee has nice players in senior post player Wayne Chism and sophomore wing Scotty Hopson and the Volunteers play ferocious defense and force lots of turnovers. They have a good coach in Bruce Pearl and I respect that they made back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances in 2007-08.

But the Aztecs can play with the Volunteers. San Diego State will need to provide some ball-handling help for ironman point guard D.J. Gay and needs frontcourt players Malcolm Thomas and Billy White to have solid games. Then if Leonard, who set a Mountain West tournament record with 21 rebounds against UNLV, is his usually solid self, this game is going right down to the wire.

In 2006, San Diego State made several careless mistakes over the final few minutes of the game to ensure it lost to Indiana. The big one of course was Brandon Heath’s turnover in the final half-minute with the Aztecs leading and in possession of the ball.

So I understand if there are people who are thinking the same type of result will happen in 2010. You know, people hung up on the dreaded San Diego State athletic curse. But I sense a different outcome this time.

It was more unlikely that the University of San Diego would beat Connecticut during the 2008 NCAA tournament – which the Toreros did – than the Aztecs defeating Tennessee. This time, I sense the Aztecs making the key plays down the stretch.

Have I been wrong before? Absolutely.

Have I lost my mind? Not to my knowledge.

Am I 100 percent confident in this prediction? Definitely.

Book it – San Diego State will defeat Tennessee on Thursday.